I was considering making a 30+ TB NAS to simplify and streamline my current setup but because it’s a relatively low priority for me I am wondering is it worth it to hold off for a year or two?
I am unsure if prices have more or less plateaued and the difference won’t be all that substantial. Maybe I should just wait for Black Friday.
For context it seems like two 16TB HDD would cost about $320 currently.
Here’s some related links:
There was a race to the bottom for SSD prices that ended roughly in July 2023, leading to losses with manufacturers having to sell under production cost; this is why NAND/SSD prices increased since then and will probably only slowly start to decrease at the end of 2024. At the same time, there is very interesting technology in the making, I just read about SSDs with up to 1000 storage layers coming in the next few years. Same goes for HDDs, although less so and prices seem more predictable there; my focus for the next few years would be completely new storage methods competing with HDDs/SSDs, but I don’t think any of this will reach consumer markets at competitive prices until 2028. My prediction: HDDs will decrease like in the past years, SSDs will start really decreasing in price with the start of 2025 and it will take a few years for completely new storage methods to arrive.
A couple of years is a life time in tech, but despite that, I think the one thing that should be the deciding factor is if you’re actually going to need the space in the mean time. If not, waiting won’t make a difference. On the flip side, if you’re going to need it in the next couple of years anyway, then it might be easier to recognize that $320 over 2 years is less than $0.50/day… taking the initial hit and take advantage of it earlier will probably work out great.
I have been hoarding for a while now and to me storage prices really seem to have plateaued in the last few years, and it doesn’t seem to be picking up as we get back to normal after the pandemic. So I don’t think waiting for a couple years is going to save you much. Personally I’d just keep an eye out for good deals like Best Buy WD Easystore sales, or Black Friday in general, and pull the trigger then.
Black Friday is definitely a good option. I’ll also point out that WD and Seagate are working on 20TB-30TB drives that should be coming out in the next couple of years which should, in theory, drive the prices down further for smaller capacity drives.
In general, technology gets cheaper for better products over time. Short term that’s not always true, but the longer timescales you look, the better is it for consumers.
A year or two is a long time, and probably worth waiting.
Waiting can be good if there is something on the horizon, but often with tech if you wait for the next thing you’ll find there’s another new thing on the horizon then. You do kind of have to decide that you’re putting your stake in the ground at some point
My stake is really that 30 TB mark. That should be enough to consolidate all my storage conveniently in one spot. I don’t need incredibly fast transfer speeds so I think an HDD would do fine.
Then whenever you’re ready. Just do a table of price per TB and go then. Best Buy usually has WD Elements on sale every other week where you can pick up an external for cheaper, then just shuck it and you get a WD red or white you can just pop into your NAS. I did 16TBs not too long ago and they were the cheapest per TB
